Tamil Nadu government formation remains uncertain as smaller parties hold key role

Tamil Nadu politics remains full of uncertainty even days after the 2026 Assembly election results. While actor-turned-politician Vijay’s party, Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), emerged as the single largest party, it still does not have enough seats to form the government on its own. As a result, several smaller political parties have suddenly become extremely important in deciding who will rule the state.

Many people believed the political story would end on May 4 when election results were declared. But instead of clarity, the results have opened the door to intense political discussions, negotiations, and confusion over government formation.

TVK won 108 seats in the Assembly. However, the majority mark in the 234-member Tamil Nadu Assembly is 118 seats. Vijay also won from two constituencies, which means he will have to leave one seat, reducing the party’s effective strength to 107.

The Congress party has offered support through its five MLAs, but even after adding those numbers, the alliance still falls short of the majority figure required to form the government.

Tamil Nadu Governor Rajendra Arlekar has reportedly told Vijay that he must show support from at least 118 MLAs before he can be invited to take oath as chief minister.

According to reports, the Governor was also unhappy that preparations for Vijay’s swearing-in ceremony had allegedly started early at Chennai’s Nehru Stadium even before official approval for government formation.

Political activity is now taking place behind closed doors, with every major and smaller party carefully studying its options.

Some political observers believe TVK made a strategic mistake by presenting itself as the leader of a coalition instead of simply claiming the right to form the government as the single largest party.

Senior politician KA Sengottaiyan had reportedly advised TVK to show only its own MLAs before the Governor. However, TVK included Congress support in its claim. This allowed the Governor to demand proof of majority support from 118 legislators.

Smaller parties become kingmakers

With the numbers still incomplete, smaller political parties have suddenly become extremely important in Tamil Nadu politics.

For Vijay to comfortably reach the majority mark, he would need support from parties like the CPI, CPM, Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK), and Indian Union Muslim League (IUML). Each of these parties has two MLAs.

However, things are not simple.

The IUML has already refused to support TVK. The party said it won its seats because of the DMK alliance and therefore would not leave MK Stalin’s camp.

The Left parties and VCK are also moving cautiously. During the election campaign, these parties openly criticised Vijay and his party. Their leaders are now reportedly demanding that TVK take a strong anti-BJP position before they consider offering support.

TVK, however, appears unwilling to give any formal commitment on this issue.

Political experts believe the real issue may not just be ideology. Many smaller parties are believed to be waiting for signals from DMK chief MK Stalin before making any decision.

Stalin reportedly does not want these parties to support Vijay because that could strengthen TVK politically and help Vijay gain the image of being the main anti-BJP leader in Tamil Nadu. The DMK has traditionally held that position in state politics.

At the same time, Stalin may also not want the situation to continue for too long. Some sections within the DMK fear that if no government is formed and President’s Rule is imposed, Tamil Nadu could face fresh elections within six months.

In such a situation, sympathy could grow for Vijay and the TVK-Congress alliance. This might help them win even more seats in a future election.

Because of these fears, political discussions are reportedly taking place even between leaders from the DMK and AIADMK camps.

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Alliances and pressure politics continue

One of the most surprising political ideas being discussed is a possible understanding between the DMK and AIADMK. Though the two parties have been rivals for decades, some leaders reportedly believe cooperation may be necessary to stop Vijay’s rapid rise.

According to reports, one proposal being discussed is for AIADMK leader Edappadi K Palaniswami to become chief minister with outside support from the DMK.

However, even this arrangement may not reach the required majority number. In addition, parties like the Left and VCK may stay away if certain NDA-linked parties become part of the arrangement.

The possibility of a DMK-AIADMK understanding has reminded many political observers of a similar idea discussed in 1979. At that time, former Union minister Biju Patnaik had reportedly tried to bring together the DMK and AIADMK under one political arrangement. However, the plan failed because of opposition within the parties.

Meanwhile, pressure is also increasing inside the AIADMK. Many party MLAs may not want to remain out of power for another five years. Some party members reportedly believe cooperation with TVK may become necessary in the future.

At the same time, other AIADMK leaders fear working with the DMK would damage the party’s image and make it appear politically opportunistic.

Within TVK too, discussions are continuing. Some party members have reportedly floated the idea that all TVK MLAs could resign together if rival parties join hands to block Vijay from forming the government. However, no official statement has been made on this issue.

Political experts believe such a move would be difficult because many newly elected MLAs spent huge amounts of money and effort to win their seats. Some candidates even won by extremely narrow margins.

Despite all the uncertainty, Vijay continues to remain at the centre of Tamil Nadu politics. His party’s strong performance has completely changed the state’s political landscape.

For decades, Tamil Nadu politics was dominated mainly by the DMK and AIADMK. But the rise of TVK has now created a three-way political battle where even smaller parties are holding major influence.

At present, no final decision has been reached regarding government formation. Negotiations, back-channel talks, and political calculations are still continuing.

Tamil Nadu voters may have given strong support to Vijay’s “whistle” symbol during the election, but the final whistle in the political match has clearly not been blown yet.